The UN’s annual MDG monitoring report was released today.

This year’s stocktaking report is especially significant since 2007 is “halftime” for the MDGs, midway between the agreement to the Millennium Declaration by 189 nations in 2000, and the 2015 deadline for MDG achievement.

While it is true that no one Goal is projected to be on track across all regions, and progress in sub-Saharan Africa needs to accelerate across the board to meet the 2015 targets, I want to point out some very impressive indicators of progress, particularly since 2000.

Progress is being made in virtually all the Goals across all regions.  Even more significant is that the post-2000 period has seen major gains, indicating that the MDG compact has sparked a seriousness of effort that is bearing fruit.  In many cases, progress between 2000 and 2005 was greater than progress in the whole of the 1990s, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Some highlights:

Goal 1:

The world is on track to meet the target of halving the percent of the world’s population living on less than $/day. This is largely the result of major progress in China and India.  Worldwide we finally dipped below the 1 billion mark of people living on less than a dollar per day. (980 million, was 1.2 billion in 1990). This is a 33% decline in the percent of the world’s population living on less than dollar/day.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has also made good progress in recent years. While SSA made virtually no progress in reducing the percent of population living under $1/day during the 1990s, it decreased the rate 5% just from 2000 to 2005.

Goal 2

The heightened focus on basic education arising out of the 1999 Dakar Education for All Summit and the MDGs has sparked big improvements in just a few years.  Primary school enrollment increased from 80% in 1990 to 88% in 2005, but 2/3 of this increase occurred since 1999.  Sub-Saharan Africa saw even more dramatic progress since 2000.  While enrollment increased 3% in the whole of the 1990s (54% to 57%), between 1999 and 2004 enrollment increased 13%.

The health goals (MDGs 4-6) present some of the biggest challenges, but here too we are seeing an escalation in service access.

On Goal 4, child mortality rates are going down in all regions.  However, they are decreasing the least in SSA, where the rates are already the highest.  

A hopeful note though is that since 2000 there has been a big push to increase vaccination.  Measles vaccination coverage went from 49% in 2000 to 64% in 2005 and measles deaths decreased 75% in sub-Saharan Africa during this period.  Because vaccination can be seen as a proxy for access to children’s health services, and other interventions like nutrition supplements and bednet distribution can be combined with immunization programs, there is hope that this will lead to big gains in child survival in Africa in the coming years.

Goal 6:

Goal 6 is a mixed picture.  The prevalence of HIV/AIDS as a percent of population is finally stabilizing after years of increase, but this is largely because deaths are increasing- deaths are roughly equal to the number of new infections.  The number of people on antiretroviral treatment spiked from about 50,000 in 2003 to over 2 million in December 2006, showing that rapid scale up is possible.  However, access to AIDS treatment still reaches only about ¼ of those who need it, and the number in need will increase significantly in the near future.

Goal 8: The Global Partnership for Development

The results in the report indicate that developing countries are taking their MDG obligations seriously and are starting to reap rewards from their effort. Given the significant progress between 2000 and 2005, it is especially disappointing that rich countries are failing to live up to their end of the MDG deal. Trade talks are collapsing and aid is far below where rich countries pledged it would be. Debt relief is one of the few areas where rich countries have matched promises with action.

For example, in 2005 the G8 pledged to double aid to sub-Saharan Africa by 2010, but aid to the region has increased only 2% between 2005 and 2006.  The U.S. has performed better in terms of percent increase, but as a share of national income, the U.S. is still second from the bottom among donor nations.  In addition, a large share of US assistance goes for political purposes; only about 20% of US aid last year went to least developed countries that are most in need of assistance.  

The “second half” of the MDG period must build on the effort and positive results we’ve seen from many developing countries. The gains show that rapid progress is possible.  Rich nations must act now for poor countries to deliver on the 2015 targets. The second half will require that rich nations get equally serious about their part of the deal. One way we can deliver that message is by taking part in the international day of action on October 17.  Stand Up and Speak Out!